Introduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 11 Probability and Statistics




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TitleIntroduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 11 Probability and Statistics
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X is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 2. Find the probability that X is between 48 and 55.

Answer: 0.8381

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 506-509

Main Heading: Normal Distribution, Probability

Key words: norm distrib, probability calculations with normal distribution


84) A paint manufacturer's production process is normally distributed with a mean of 100,000 gallons and a standard deviation of 10,000 gallons. Management wants to create an incentive bonus for the production crew when the daily production exceeds the 94th percentile of the distribution. At what level of production should management pay the incentive bonus?

Answer: z = 1.56, so incentive level is 115,600 gallons

Diff: 3 Page Ref: 506-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.





85) The probability that someone wins any money is ________.

Answer: 0.1166

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 492

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: addition rule


86) The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

Answer: 0.0006

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 492

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: addition rule


87) __________ techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

A) Probability

B) Probabilistic

C) Deterministic

D) Distribution

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 490

Main Heading: Types of Probability

Key words: deterministic methods


88) __________ probability is an estimate based on personal belief, experience, or knowledge of a situation.

A) Binomial

B) Subjective

C) Marginal

D) Joint

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 490

Main Heading: Types of Probability

Key words: subjective probability


89) Objective probabilities that can be stated prior to the occurrence of an event are

A) subjective

B) a priori

C) classical or a priori

D) none of the above

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 489

Main Heading: Types of Probability

Key words: classical (or a priori) probability

90) The events in an experiment are __________ if only one can occur at a time.

A) mutually exclusive

B) non-mutually exclusive

C) mutually inclusive

D) independent

Answer: A

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 491

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: mutually exclusive events


91) In a given experiment the probabilities of mutually exclusive events sum to

A) 0

B) 0.5

C) 1

D) none of the above

Answer: C

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 491

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: mutually exclusive events


92) A __________ probability is the probability of a single event occurring.

A) subjective

B) binomial

C) marginal

D) joint

Answer: C

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 489

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: marginal probability


93) A frequency distribution is an organization of __________ data about the events in an experiment.

A) quantitative

B) numerical

C) qualitative

D) A and B

Answer: D

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 490

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: frequency distribution


94) P(A U B) is the probability that __________ will occur.

A) A

B) B

C) A and B

D) A or B or both

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 492

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: union of events

95) Jim is considering pursuing an MS in Information Systems degree. He has applied to two different universities. The acceptance rate for applicants with similar qualifications is 20% for University X and 45% for University Y. What is the probability that Jim will be accepted at both universities?

A) .65

B) .25

C) .20

D) 09

E) .05

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: multiplication of probabilities


96) Jim is considering pursuing an MS in Information Systems degree. He has applied to two different universities. The acceptance rate for applicants with similar qualifications is 20% for University X and 45% for University Y. What is the probability that Jim will not be accepted at either university?

A) .20

B) .30

C) .36

D) .44

E) 56

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: multiplication of probabilities


97) Employees of a local company are classified according to gender and job type. The following table summarizes the number of people in each job category.


Male (M) Female (F)

Job

Administrative (AD) 110 10

Salaried staff (SS) 30 50

Hourly staff (HS) 60 40


If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female or works as a member of the administration

A) .1667

B) .60

C) .67

D) .70

E) .73

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Fundamentals of Probability

Key words: not mutually exclusive events, addition rule

98) A __________ probability distribution indicates the probability of r successes in n trials.

A) joint

B) subjective

C) marginal

D) binomial

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial probability distribution


99) The probability of independent events occurring in succession is computed by __________ the probabilities of each event.

A) multiplying

B) adding

C) subtracting

D) dividing

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: independent events


100) A __________ probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred.

A) subjective

B) objective

C) conditional

D) binomial

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: conditional probability


101) In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

A) marginal

B) conditional

C) binomial

D) revised

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 501

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: marginal probability

102) Employees of a local company are classified according to gender and job type. The following table summarizes the number of people in each job category.


Male (M) Female (F)

Job

Administrative (AD) 110 10

Salaried staff (SS) 30 50

Hourly staff (HS) 60 40


If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female given that the employee is a salaried staff member.

A) .1667

B) .50

C) .60

D) .625

E) .70

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 495

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: conditional probability


103) A __________ probability is the altered marginal probability of an event based on additional information.

A) posterior

B) joint

C) marginal

D) conditional

E) A and B

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 501

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: posterior (revised) probability


104) Mutually exclusive events are

A) events with identical probabilities

B) events that have no outcomes in common

C) events that have no effect on each other

D) all of the above

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 491

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: mutually exclusive events


105) Bayesian analysis involves a(n) __________ probability.

A) a priori

B) posterior

C) joint

D) relative frequency

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 501

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: Bayesian analysis

106) In a __________ distribution, for each of n trials, the event always has the same probability of occurring.

A) binomial

B) joint

C) frequency

D) standard

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution


107) Experiments with repeated independent trials will be described by the binomial distribution if

A) each trial result influences the next

B) each trial has exactly 2 outcomes whose probabilities do not change

C) the trials are continuous

D) the time between trials is constant

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution


108) In a binomial distribution, for each of n trials, the event

A) time between trials is constant

B) always has the same probability of occurring

C) result of the first trial influence the next trial

D) trials are continuous

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution


109) A fair die is rolled nine times. What is the probability that an odd number (1,3 or 5) will occur less than 3 times?

A) .0899

B) .2544

C) .7456

D) .9101

E) .9916

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution

110) A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?

A) .1640

B) .2188

C) .4922

D) .6016

E) .8204

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution


111) A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

A) 0.80

B) 2.4

C) 0.032

D) 0.24

E) 0.096

Answer: E

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 497

Main Heading: Statistical Independence and Dependence

Key words: binomial distribution


112) __________ is a measure of the dispersion of random variable values about the expected value or mean.

A) Standard deviation

B) Sample mean

C) Population mean

D) Variance

E) A and D

Answer: E

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 503

Main Heading: Expected Value

Key words: variance, standard deviation

113) An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.


xi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

p(xi)

.10

.15

.18

.20

.20

.10

.07


What is the average number of complaints received per week?

A) 2.12

B) 3.32

C) 4.12

D) 2.83

E) None of the above

Answer: D

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 503

Main Heading: Expected Value

Key words: expected value


114) The expected value of the standard normal distribution is equal to

A) 0

B) 1

C) 1.5

D) 2

E) 2.5

Answer: A

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 504

Main Heading: Expected Value

Key words: expected value


115) The area under the normal curve represents probability, and the total area under the curve sums to

A) 0

B) 0.5

C) 1

D) 2

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 504

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution


116) The __________ and variance are derived from a subset of the population data and are used to make inferences about the population.

A) Population variance

B) Population standard deviation

C) population mean

D) sample mean

E) sample range

Answer: D

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: mean and variance

117) Under the normal curve, the area between z=1 and z =-2 includes approximately __________ of the values.

A) 99%

B) 98%

C) 95%

D) 85%

E) 82%

Answer: E

Diff: 3 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution


118) For the normal distribution, the mean plus and minus 1.96 standard deviations will include what percent of the observations?

A) 80%

B) 84%

C) 90%

D) 95%

E) 97%

Answer: D

Diff: 1 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution


119) A jar of jelly is normally distributed with a mean of 16 oz and a standard deviation of 0.02 oz. What is the probability that a jar of jelly contains less than 16 oz?

A) .1915

B) .3085

C) .5000

D) .7257

E) .8413

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: norm distrib, probability calculations with normal distribution


120) A jar of jelly is normally distributed with a mean of 16 oz and a standard deviation of 0.02 oz. What is the probability that a jar of jelly contains more than 16.03 oz?

A) .0668

B) .1587

C) .3413

D) .4332

E) .9332

Answer: A

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: norm distrib, probability calculations with normal distribution

121) Under the normal curve, the area between z=2 and z =-2 includes __________ of the values.

A) 98%

B) 96%

C) 95%

D) 93%

E) 90%

Answer: C

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution


122) The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

A) 0.0228

B) 0.0475

C) 0.0485

D) 0.0500

E) None of the above

Answer: B

Diff: 2 Page Ref: 504-509

Main Heading: The Normal Distribution

Key words: normal distribution


123) For some positive value of
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